Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 23.301914 24.622014 26.015230 27.601709 29.366371 31.278598 33.520562
2025-12-28 21.858057 23.707915 25.754919 28.211375 31.111399 34.468785 38.715488
2026-01-04 20.793653 22.908067 25.316095 28.302758 31.968963 36.410105 42.344485
2026-01-11 20.129057 22.481675 25.230357 28.743733 33.217538 38.881556 46.885109
2026-01-18 19.438442 21.943212 24.929157 28.839440 33.971850 40.719222 50.740276
2026-01-25 18.622358 21.191656 24.301723 28.451597 34.030413 41.592316 53.303391
2026-02-01 17.870581 20.471302 23.659583 27.981398 33.911565 42.167608 55.446344
2026-02-08 17.098002 19.685374 22.888249 27.283171 33.411463 42.127970 56.590003
2026-02-15 16.687361 19.334207 22.650953 27.273296 33.853803 43.480598 60.138666
2026-02-22 16.456068 19.197163 22.678078 27.613155 34.804699 45.671685 65.442688
2026-03-01 15.949419 18.682183 22.180334 27.191657 34.599771 46.023707 67.493920
2026-03-08 15.330319 17.999851 21.433080 26.381638 33.759643 45.277222 67.359810
2026-03-15 14.891440 17.564117 21.032262 26.090486 33.758101 46.019965 70.495330
2026-03-22 14.770518 17.543899 21.192962 26.614534 35.053270 49.090825 79.099959
2026-03-29 14.514067 17.328709 21.070416 26.707687 35.661884 51.026243 85.785840
2026-04-05 14.373794 17.263105 21.149873 27.101510 36.784706 54.038199 95.997582
2026-04-12 14.145894 17.067963 21.035477 27.189422 37.397313 56.161639 104.759817
2026-04-19 13.796786 16.694387 20.651467 26.838931 37.229154 56.717696 109.376747
2026-04-26 13.444680 16.306496 20.233301 26.414503 36.900964 56.908248 113.003062
2026-05-03 13.048203 15.846975 19.697796 25.782830 36.167842 56.181317 113.554584
2026-05-10 12.854363 15.665050 19.559273 25.773921 36.544318 57.851744 122.706468
2026-05-17 12.760928 15.620357 19.618192 26.081487 37.514402 60.955524 138.742465
2026-05-24 12.479606 15.302556 19.263463 25.699986 37.179063 61.059991 143.284455